Our Gemara on Amud Aleph describes a legendary bird, that if it shrieks in a particular manner, indicates that the Messiah is coming:

“Rabbi Yoḥanan says: Why is it called the raḥam? Because when the raḥam comes to Eretz Yisrael, mercy [raḥamim] comes to the world, as it appears at the beginning of the rainy season. Rav Beivai bar Abaye said: And it is a sign of rain only when it sits on something and makes a sherakrak sound. And it is learned as a tradition that if it sits on the ground and hisses [veshareik], this is a sign that the Messiah is coming.”

Then, the Gemara adds:

“Rav Adda bar Shimi said to Mar bar Rav Idai: But wasn’t there a certain raḥam that sat on a plowed field and hissed, and a stone came and broke its head? Mar bar Rav Idai said to him: That raḥam was a liar (and the stone crushed him as punishment for prophesying falsely. See Rashi.)”

The Maharal (Netzach Yisrael 42) makes a startling comment. There are occasional exceptions to the typical order of nature, and literally, you can have a strange bird. Segulos are not always reliable signs and may be false positives caused by other factors. This is particularly significant when discussing expectations and predictions of the Messiah; even Gemara-endorsed predictions are subject to false positives! It is especially significant that this involves expectations of the Messiah as Jewish history is filled with false messiahs and calculations and predictions. The most famous one is Shabetai Tzvi, but the most important one is that Rabbi Akiva himself was fooled, thinking Bar Kochva was the Messiah (Yerushalmi Taanis 4:5).

Aside from the obvious lesson that nothing is certain, even so-called heavenly signs, there is something deeper. What if they weren’t as false as they seem? There is a spiritual pattern that endorses the idea that there could be a spark of truth or a potential of Messiah, even if it doesn’t come to fruition. Many Jews believe that about the formation of the state of Israel post-Holocaust. We do have a tradition of the Mashiach Ben Yosef (see Succah 52a), and this seems to represent an authentic spark or potential that must occur, but it’s not the final stage.

In personal redemption as well we might have experiences that seem like we’re finally there, we finally solved the problem, we are healed. Then, we discover that we regressed and gone back to the same dysfunctional place. It could be seen as a false recovery or, so to speak, false Messiah. But what if it’s not false? What if it represented a potential that was not yet fully actualized? Not all failures are absolute failures and they could be instead seen as the opening of pathways for further recovery.